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Augsburg vs Bayern Munich

Fri 09 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 5 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Augsburg win: 27.5%

Draw: 24.7%

Bayern Munich win: 47.8%

Predicted: Bayern Munich

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 63.0%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 71.5%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.81

More corners: Bayern Munich (31.1% home / 68.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Bayern Munich

Yes

Probability Bayern Munich wins or draws: 68.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Bayern Munich Clearest lean of the available outcomes (48% vs next-best 28%). (48.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (63.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (72.0% model probability) High

Corners Bayern Munich (more corners) (69.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Bayern Munich win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (68.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.